Gas prices are holding steady or declining in most states, with the exception of some Great Lakes states where prices are rising after some steep declines. This has put some upward pressure on the national average for regular gas. Oregon and most other states continue to see gas prices fall due to lackluster demand and plentiful supplies. For the week, the national average for regular remains at $3.44. The Oregon average falls six cents to $4.09 a gallon. This is the third-largest weekly drop for a state in the nation.
“Demand for gasoline in the U.S. has trailed 2023 for most of this year and we haven’t seen the high numbers yet that are typical for the summer driving season. We do expect demand to pick up for the 4th of July holiday, but so far the numbers for June are relatively soft,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.
The national and Oregon averages are at the same prices as they were in March. This week, two Oregon counties have averages below $4 per gallon:
Gilliam $3.99
Morrow $3.97
The Oregon average began 2024 at $3.79 a gallon compared to $4.09 today. Its lowest price so far this year is $3.58 on February 14 and the highest is nearly $4.51 on May 1. The national average started the year at $3.11 and is at $3.44 today. Its lowest price so far this year is just under $3.07 on January 15 and the highest is just under $3.68 on April 19.
Gas prices always rise starting in late winter through the spring as refineries undergo maintenance as the switch to summer-blend fuel occurs. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to make the change to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover as early as February.
Crude oil prices have remained volatile due to geopolitical events around the world including the war between Israel and Hamas, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ have tightened global crude oil supplies. OPEC+ met on June 2 and, as expected, the cartel will extend production cuts into the third quarter.
The price of crude oil reached the year-to-date high of nearly $87 per barrel on April 5 and has moved lower since then. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $80 on March 14 and above $85 on April 2, then dipped below $85 starting on April 17 and below $80 again on May 1. Major drivers of elevated crude prices are the unrest in the Middle East and the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Russia is a top global oil producer and the refinery attacks have reduced output.
Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas in October. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region.
Crude oil is trading around $80 today compared to $78 a week ago and $71 a year ago. In 2023, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. Crude reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 55% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 19% is refining, 12% distribution and marketing, and 14% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. crept higher from 8.94 million b/d to 9.04 million b/d for the week ending June 7, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 9.19 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline stocks jumped from 230.9 to 233.5 million barrels as production increased last week, averaging 10.1 million barrels per day.
Mediocre gasoline demand, increasing supply, and stable oil costs will likely lead to falling pump prices; however, if crude prices remain above $80, that could put upward pressure on pump prices.
Quick stats
Oregon is one of 35 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a week ago. California (-8 cents) has the biggest weekly drop in the nation. Ohio (+16 cents) and Michigan (+15 cents) have the largest week-over-week increases. Oregon has the third-largest weekly decline.
California ($4.83) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the 16th week in a row. This is the second week in a row that the California average has been below $5 per gallon. Hawaii ($4.74) is second, Washington ($4.34) is third, Oregon ($4.09) is fourth, and Nevada ($4.05) is fifth. These are the five states with averages at or above $4 a gallon, same as a week ago. This week 43 states and the District of Columbia have averages in the $3-range. There are two states with averages in the $2 range this week.
The cheapest gas in the nation is in Mississippi ($2.92) and Arkansas ($2.94). No state has had an average below $2 a gallon since January 7, 2021, when Mississippi and Texas were below that threshold.
The difference between the most expensive and least expensive states is $1.91 this week, compared to $1.97 a week ago.
Oregon is one of 48 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a month ago. The national average is 15 cents less and the Oregon average is 30 cents less than a month ago. This is the fourth-largest month-over-month decline in the nation. Alaska (-42 cents) and California (-38 cents) have the largest monthly drops. Delaware (+4 cents) and Maryland (+2 cents) are the only states with month-over-month increases.
Oregon is one of 46 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a year ago. The national average is 14 cents less and the Oregon average is 44 cents less than a year ago. This is the fourth-largest year-over-year drop in the nation. Utah (-63 cents) has the largest yearly decrease. Delaware (+17 cents) has the largest year-over-year increase.
West Coast
The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with all seven states in the top 10. It’s typical for the West Coast to have six or seven states in the top 10 as this region tends to consistently have fairly tight supplies, consuming about as much gasoline as is produced. In addition, this region is located relatively far from parts of the country where oil drilling, production and refining occurs, so transportation costs are higher. And environmental programs in this region add to the cost of production, storage and distribution.
Diesel
For the week, the national average holds steady at $3.79 a gallon. The record high is $5.816 set on June 19, 2022. The Oregon average loses two cents to $4.07. The record high is $6.47 set on July 3, 2022. A year ago the national average for diesel was $3.89 and the Oregon average was $4.40.
Source: AAA