Gas prices are easing in most states, including Oregon, this week, despite crude oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel. Normally, the seasonal transition to winter-blend gas and the usual decrease in demand for gas give drivers some significant relief in the fall. But elevated crude oil prices due to the conflict with Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are preventing steeper decreases at the pumps. For the week, the national average for regular gasoline slips one cent to $4.27 a gallon. The Oregon average falls seven cents to $4.86 a gallon.
“Geopolitical events and uncertainty continue to put intense pressure on crude oil prices. For now, gas prices are declining in most states, but at some point, rising crude oil prices will likely translate into higher pump prices,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.
Gas prices are significantly more expensive than they were before the conflict with Iran began. The National average for regular gas was $2.98 and Oregon average was $3.92 on Feb. 28, the day the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran.
Crude oil prices remain volatile, with dramatic swings driven by concerns of how the conflict with Iran impacts global oil supplies. Since the conflict with Iran started, prices for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for crude, have ranged between $68 and nearly $113 per barrel. Crude was at $67 per barrel on Feb. 27, the day before the conflict began.
In general, every $1 increase in the price of crude oil leads to a 2.4- to 2.5-cent increase in the price of gasoline.
October has shaped up to have the highest number of maritime and commercial shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February. Normally, about 20% of the world’s oil and refined products flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the narrow passageway of the Persian Gulf and is bordered by Iran. Tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz carry oil from major producers in the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Iraq and Iran. Any disruption in the straight can impact global oil supplies and send crude oil prices higher.
The Oregon average for regular gas began 2026 at $3.42 a gallon. The highest price of the year so far is $5.353 on May 20. The lowest price of the year so far is $3.33 on January 20. The record high for the Oregon average is $5.548 set on June 15, 2022.
The Washington average for regular gas began 2026 at $3.86 a gallon. The highest price of the year so far is $5.789 on May 20, which is the record high for Washington. The lowest price of the year so far is $3.79 on January 14.
The national average began 2026 at $2.83 a gallon. The highest price of the year so far is $4.564 on May 21. The lowest price of the year so far is $2.795 on January 11. The record high for the national average is $5.016 set on June 14, 2022.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. gasoline increased from 8.41 million barrels per day to 8.98 million for the week ending October 16. This compares to 8.45 million b/d a year ago. Total domestic gasoline supply decreased from 208.3 million barrels to 205.3 million. Gasoline production increased from 9.23 million barrels per day to 9.75 million barrels.
In addition to the conflict in the Middle East, pump prices are also impacted by the normal seasonal factors. Gas prices usually drop in the fall, due to the switch from summer-blend to winter-blend fuel, which costs less to produce. The switch starts in September. Many areas, including Oregon, can sell winter-blend fuel starting September 15. However, Northern and Southern California require summer-blend fuel through October 31. Prices usually decline to their lowest levels of the year in late fall and early winter before increasing again in the late winter and early spring.
This year, though, pump prices are elevated for this time of year due to all of the global geopolitical tensions.
Gas prices typically rise starting in mid-to-late winter and early spring as refineries undergo maintenance ahead of the switch to summer-blend fuel, which is more expensive to produce and less likely to evaporate in warmer temperatures. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to switch to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover in February.
The U.S. price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) is back above $100 to start this week. The conflicts in the Middle East, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and market concerns about global oil supplies continue to impact prices. Crude prices fell sharply earlier this summer as markets reacted to the peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. WTI dipped below $70 for several days in late June and early July, the lowest prices since the start of the conflict. Crude prices rose again as the conflict escalated again.
WTI is trading around $100 today, compared to $102 a week ago and $61 a year ago. In 2025, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $80.04 (January 15) and $57.46 (October 16) per barrel. In 2024, WTI ranged between $66 and $87 per barrel. In 2023, WTI ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. WTI reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.
Crude prices are determined in international markets, based on global supply and demand, and are impacted by economic news as well as geopolitical events around the world including the conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, economic uncertainty, the situation in Venezuela, tensions over Greenland, sanctions on Iran’s oil, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is a top global oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 52% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 22% is refining, 15% distribution and marketing, and 12% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Meanwhile, crude oil production in the U.S. remains at or near record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that crude production in his country is at 13.27 million barrels per day for the week ending October 16. Production has been at 13.5 million barrels per day many times since October 2024. The U.S. has been the top producer of crude oil in the world since 2018 and has been increasing its oil production since about 2009.
Diesel
For the week, the national average adds three cents to $6.35 a gallon. The national average has backed away from its all-time record high of $6.53 set on September 22. The previous record high for diesel was $5.816 set on June 19, 2022.
The Oregon average holds steady at $6.74 per gallon. The Oregon average has declined from its all-time record high of $6.88 set on September 23. The previous record high was $6.47 set on July 3, 2022.
A year ago the national average for diesel was $3.66 and the Oregon average was $4.37.
Diesel prices are lower in 15 states this week. Michigan (+27 cents) has the largest week-over-week increase. New Mexico (-9 cents) has the largest week-over-week decline.
Source: AAA